Scott Ritter Was Right

TECHNORATI TAGS: Scott Ritter, Pres. Bush, Iraq, historic mistake, Al Qaeda, sectarian violence

A confluence of items in the news today tugged at a memory of a sentence I read four years ago: something that had been said by an early opponent of the Iraq war.

During the months of build-up to Pres. Bush's March 19, 2003, invasion of Iraq, there were many people who opposed the impending war. But few of those people, if any, were as prescient, as prophetic, as Scott Ritter.

In early September, 2002, Ritter addressed the Iraqi parliament at a special session of the Iraqi National Assembly's Arab and Foreign Relations Committee, held in Baghdad. This is part of what he said [the bolds are mine]:

"I understand that I appear before you today not only as the first American citizen to address your body, but also as the first non-governmental speaker as well. And I thank you for providing me with this opportunity..."

"My country seems on the verge of making an historic mistake, one that will forever change the political dynamic which has governed the world since the end of the Second World War; namely, the foundation of international law as set forth in the United Nations Charter, which calls for the peaceful resolution of problems between nations...

Scott Ritter was right. But not only was he right; he spoke with a remarkable clarity of vision and preciseness of language. Because this is exactly what the threatened Iraq invasion was, and what the Iraq war and occupation turned out to be: an historic mistake.

Back to those news items:

Who would have thought, at the time that Scott Ritter spoke to the Iraqi parliament -- September of 2002, just one year after the Al Qaeda-sponsored attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon -- that four years later Al Qaeda would barely be a news item anymore? Who would have thought back then that the most serious threat to Iraqis, and to U.S. troops in Iraq, would be a mighty Shiite army led by a powerful Shiite Islamic cleric?

Who would have thought, in September of 2002, that in the last month of 2006, Iraq would be engulfed in internecine warfare, that a bipartisan panel commissioned by Congress would conclude that "Pres. Bush's Iraq policies [had] failed in almost every regard"? That sectarian violence between Shiites and Sunnis, and against the continuing U.S. presence in Iraq, would rage so fiercely, and appear to be so invincible, that even the Pentagon would acknowledge that the anti-U.S. fighters were winning? Or that this same Pentagon would report "violence at record highs of 959 attacks per week, declining public confidence in government and 'little progress' toward political reconciliation"? Who would have thought back then that in December of 2006, Bush's approval rating on Iraq would be 27%? That Arab attitudes toward the United States at the end of 2006 would have plummeted even below where they were in 2002? And that, for the first time, Arab poll respondents would express negative feelings toward the American people and American culture, as well as toward the government?

Let's look back at that paragraph from Ritter's 2002 address, above:

My country seems on the verge of making an historic mistake, one that will forever change the political dynamic which has governed the world since the end of the Second World War; namely, the foundation of international law as set forth in the United Nations Charter, which calls for the peaceful resolution of problems between nations...

Now consider these words by Christy Hardin Smith, at Firedoglake:

The news from Great Britain this morning is all abuzz about the Think Tank report that says that the new government after Tony Blair leaves office must distance itself from the United States and move more toward Europe as a matter of foreign policy survival due to the debacle that is Iraq. Think about that for a moment.

Britain and the United States have been staunch allies for decades. In six short years, George W. Bush has managed to take the United States' staunchest ally and send it screaming into the arms of the rest of Europe.

Blair said it would be a "fundamental mistake" for Europe to turn away from the United States.

One thing we know for certain, though. The consequence Ritter predicted would result from the "historic mistake" of invading Iraq has come to pass.